From the
editor’s desk…
Welcome
to Pipes & Wires #159. This issue begins with 3 articles on grid security
and energy mix, a theme that is becoming increasingly important. We then look
briefly at the likely changes to US post-election energy policy to set some
context for future analysis.
We
then look at a couple of regulatory decisions in NZ and Australia, and follow
that up with some industry restructurings. This issue concludes with an
examination of the proposed introduction of solar tariffs in the US state of
Utah.
I’d
take this opportunity to wish you and yours a Merry Christmas and a Happy New
Year, and we’ll be back in February…
Emerging themes & trends
Some
of the industry themes and trends that are emerging include…
· Further increases in the awareness of the importance of
thermal generation for renewable buffering, both in the context of
moment-by-moment fluctuations in wind and solar, but also in the traditionally
understood sense of dry hydro years.
· Government officials seem a bit nervous about regulated
electric companies diversifying into other sources of revenue, and more so when
natural disasters interrupt electricity supply. Those officials anxiously seek
assurance that supply interruptions weren’t because electric companies had
taken their focus of the core electricity business (the Auditor General in New
Zealand recently commented that “investments in core business should not be
compromised”). Personally I’m not seeing core asset management being
compromised by diversification to the extent of wide spread supply
interruptions.
· Canadian electric companies are migrating their capital to
the United States. Key reasons include expected localised demand growth and
sustainable regulatory determinations in some states. This could be the next
wave of capital migration, and appears to be a continuation of the off-shore
infrastructure investments being made by some of Canada’s pension funds.
· What appears to be some confusion amongst regulators about
to how to regulate emerging technologies such as batteries and solar. Given
that these technologies seem to be giving customers increased choice about
where they obtain their electricity from, perhaps the question should be
whether to regulate.
· Concern over foreign ownership of critical infrastructure.
This issue seems to have escalated from one of energy security to one of
national security.
· Diverging views of the green lobby on nuclear energy. Some environmental
groups remain steadfastly opposed to nuclear energy, whilst other groups are
now supporting nuclear as a useful transition from coal to renewables.
· An increasing recognition that improved asset condition
information is the next frontier for improved asset management decisions, and
from there to strengthened regulatory proposals (rates cases).
· A sense that some governments may be losing patience with
the slow pace of the transition to renewables, and the heightened possibility
that those governments may move from encouraging through incentives to
mandating through sanctions.
System security & energy mix
Aus – closing Hazelwood and the future of coal-fired
generation
Introduction
It has
been confirmed that Hazelwood power station in Australia will close at the end of March 2017. This
article follows on from a related article in Pipes & Wires #157 and continues Pipes & Wires discussion of thermal
generation closures.
Details of the closure
Hazelwood’s
owners ENGIE have examined options including conversion to bio-mass, re-powering with gas
turbines and keeping the most efficient units operating, but the wholesale
electricity is to too low to justify these options leaving closure as the only
option.
About
250 employees will be retained over the next 7 years to rehabilitate the
station site.
The implications for electricity prices
Hazelwood
generates about 25% of Victoria’s electricity, and its’ closure will remove
about 1,600MW from the National Electricity Market’s (NEM) supply curve. This will require higher cost
generation to run more often, pushing up electricity prices. Estimates of how
much prices will rise range from nothing in 2017 followed by 8% in 2018, to an
immediate 4% increase per year in 2017, to a possible 25% increase in
2017.
The implications for dry year security
There
is concern over the apparent lack of a coherent national strategy for closing coal-fired
generation, and much uncertainty over exactly what generation will replace
Hazelwood.
So whilst
it’s pleasing to see the Senate Standing Committees on Environment and
Communications being asked to inquiry into and report on the retirement of coal-fired power stations, and also pleasing to see that items (c)(iii) and (c)(iv)
of the inquiry will have regard to the increasing amount of electricity
generated by renewables and inter alia
the security of supply, it must be noted with concern that the inquiry is about
“how to close coal-fired power stations” rather than “whether to close them”.
Key recommendations
of the Committee’s interim report include…
· Development of a comprehensive energy transition plan,
including reform of the National Electricity Market rules.
· Develop a mechanism for the orderly retirement of coal-fired
stations for consideration by the COAG Energy Council.
· Insertion of a pollution reduction objective into the
National Electricity Objectives.
· Establishment of an energy transition authority.
The
interim report noted the importance of energy security as a number one priority
however it is not clear how that is reflected in the above recommendations. Pipes
& Wires will re-visit this issue in early 2017 after the Committee releases
its final report.
NZ – mandating stability during grid faults
Introduction
The
stability of AC transmission grids during and immediately after faults is
becoming more critical as the penetration of wind and solar generation
increases. This article examines recent changes in New Zealand requiring
grid-connected generators to meet specified fault ride through standards.
The issue of fault ride through
The
rotating inertia of large generators is critical to grid stability during and
immediately after faults. The increasing penetration of wind and solar reduces
the available rotating inertia, meaning that less energy is available to keep
the grid frequency close to 50Hz or 60Hz. That requires other methods of restoring
and maintaining the energy balance, such as spinning reserve or interruptible
load which obviously come at a cost to industry participants and ultimately to
customers.
The
specific engineering principle involved here is that non-faulted generators
(ie. those that haven’t tripped due to an internal fault) need to stay
connected to assist frequency restoration rather than tripping due to voltage
excursions.
The issue of who pays for providing grid stability
Under
a scenario of increasing wind and solar penetration that don’t contribute to
grid stability, the cost of providing grid stability gets shifted to other
participants, such as hydro generators that can provide spinning reserve, or
industrial customers that agree to interrupt their demand. That requires
mechanisms to allow those participants to recover their costs, so an
alternative is to require all generators to provide a minimum specified level
of grid stability.
The Electricity Authority’s decision
Key
components of the Electricity
Authority’s decision include….
· Requiring grid-connected generators can remain stable and
connected within defined under-voltage and over-voltage limits during and
immediately after AC faults.
· Requiring grid-connected generators can remain stable and
connected within defined under-voltage and over-voltage limits during and
immediately after faults on the HVDC.
· Ensuring that generators can generate sufficient reactive current
to oppose voltage changes during and immediately after AC faults.
The
Authority has concluded its decisions and the consequent Code amendments will
reduce the risk of supply interruptions caused by non-faulted generators
tripping, and improve grid efficiency by reducing the amount of instantaneous
reserve required.
Changes to the Electricity Industry Participation Code
Part 8 of the Code will be amended by the Electricity Industry
Participation Code Amendment (Generation fault Ride Through) 2016. The amendment includes several charts showing depicting
the voltage limits within which grid-connected connected generation must remain
connected and stable for North Island faults, for South Island faults, and for
the HVDC.
Canada – phasing out traditional coal-fired generation
Introduction
The
Canadian government recently announced amendments to its existing coal-fired
generation policy that will see traditional coal-fired generation phased out by
2030. This article examines those policy amendments and looks at its
implications.
The existing policy
The Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal-fired Generation of
Electricity Regulations (SOR/2012-167) were made pursuant to the Canadian Environmental Protection Act 1999. Key features of the Regulations include…
· CO2 emissions are limited to 420 tons per GWh, as
measured on an annual average basis.
· Emissions that are captured in accordance with the laws of
either Canada or any province are not included in the 420 tons per GWh.
· A requirement to register all coal-fired generation, and the
requirement to annually report on compliance with limit.
· Limits on the effective life of coal-fired generation of 50
years along with some specified dates based on commissioning year.
· Restrictions on substituting a coal-fired generating unit
for a withdrawn unit.
· Provision to apply to the Minister for an exemption from the
shutdown requirements for a specific generating unit if an emergency
circumstance arises that either disrupts electricity supply or poses a
significant risk of supply disruption and the unit will end, decrease
the risk of or mitigate the consequences of the disruption.
A
quick bit of research suggests that the 420 tons per GWh in the Regulations is
much lower than Canada’s recent emissions of 800 to 900 tons per GWh, and
indeed is lower than what most of Canada’s gas-fired generation could achieve
(about 450 tons per GWh).
The policy amendments
Key
aspects of the policy amendments include…
· Requiring all traditional coal-fired units to achieve an
emission level of 420 tons per GWh no later than 2030 (regardless of
commissioning date).
· Introducing a range of emission levels for gas-fired
generation and for coal-fired generation converted to gas firing.
These
amendments will provide a big incentive to either build very efficient new
gas-fired generation, or convert coal-fired boilers to gas.
The likely impact on Canada’s energy mix
It is
expected that these policy changes will increase Canada’s percentage of
renewable electricity generation from about 80% to about 90%, or about an additional
62,000 GWh per year.
The likely impact on Canada’s energy trilemma
Will
this policy, which is ostensibly aimed at reducing CO2 emissions,
actually work ? Let’s examine this using the energy trilemma model and insert
some emerging evidence from other jurisdictions to see how well Canada’s policy
might work. Canada scored 22nd on the World Energy Council index, with a score of AAC. Impacts on the trilemma might be…
· Energy security (scored an A in 2016). A decline in
electricity supply security is possible, as intermittent renewable generation
displaces coal-fired generation. This has been pointed out, along with the
suggestion that renewables need to be balanced with gas-fired generation.
· Energy equity (scored an A in 2016). The emerging picture from
Europe is that increasing renewable generation results in higher electricity
prices, so a decline in equity is possible.
· Environmental sustainability (scored a C in 2016). The
emerging picture, again from Europe but also from Australia, is that increasing
renewable generation is not leading to the expected reduction in CO2
emissions. It is noted that electricity generation fuel mix is only part of this
index, and that Canada’s strategy of exporting fossil fuels is likely to mask
small improvements from the electricity sector.
So it
would appear that the expected policy outcomes might be hard to achieve in
practice.
Energy policy
US – post-election energy policy
Introduction
A
high-level observation is that the Republican’s recent election victories are
almost certain to reverse or at least slow the de-carbonisation of the US
energy sector. This article examines Trump’s previously stated energy policies to
provide some context for further analysis once he’s taken office.
Trump’s previously stated energy policies
Trump’s
previously stated energy policies are along the following lines…
· An expected use of coal and shale gas to benefit American
families and to support American jobs.
· Support for the Keystone XL Pipeline (Phase IV), which by implication supports increased imports from the Alberta oil sands.
· Strong support for the coal industry.
· Strong support for nuclear energy.
· Support for natural gas.
· Support for renewable energy, but not to the exclusion of
other forms of energy that are working much better.
· A rejection of the principles of green energy, including the
view that man-made CO2 emissions are causing global warming.
· To strengthen America’s energy independence as a key
strategic and foreign policy goal.
It
doesn’t require much thought to see that these policy positions are completely
opposite to those of both President Obama and candidate Clinton, so the changes
in policy settings and the consequent shift in investment patterns are likely
to be monumental.
The likely practical implications of these policies
The
likely practical implications of these policies are…
· A change in high-level paradigm away from the view that
global warming is caused by man-made CO2 emissions.
· Government subsidies for renewable energy (and presumably
the associated transmission interconnects) are likely to be curtailed (this was
a fairly immediate action when Tony Abbott was elected in Australia), although
a few days after the election a Trump insider announced renewable credits would
remain in place.
· Barriers to fossil fuels are likely to be removed, including
clean air legislation and environmental assessments that obstruct pipelines,
transmission lines and generation plant.
· Legislation promoting extreme renewable energy targets and
favoring renewable energy is less likely to be passed (noting that Missouri,
New Hampshire and Vermont now have Republican governors) with the added
possibility that existing legislation may be repealed.
Pipes
& Wires will re-visit this issue after the Trump administration gets its
feet under the desk.
Regulatory decisions
NZ – cost
of capital for gas distribution
Introduction
The Commerce
Commission recently released its cost of capital decision that will apply to Powerco’s gas distribution business for the
disclosure year ending 30th September 2017. This article examines
the key features of that determination.
Regulatory frameworks
The applicable regulatory
framework is clauses 2.4.1 to 2.4.7 of the Gas Distribution Services Input Methodologies Determination 2012. This determination is made pursuant to Part 4 of the Commerce Act 1986.
Key features of the WACC’s
Key features of
the WACC’s include…
|
WACC description |
25th
percentile |
Mid-point |
75th
percentile |
|
Vanilla |
4.86% |
5.67% |
6.48% |
|
Post-tax |
4.37% |
5.18% |
5.99% |
Aus – appealing the electricity revenue determinations for
SA
Introduction
Pipes & Wires #148 examined SA Power Networks’ appeal of the Australian Energy
Regulator’s electricity distribution revenue determination to the Australian
Competition Tribunal. This article notes the Tribunal’s determination for that appeal.
The revenue determination
The
revenue determination resulted in a significant revenue reduction from that
proposed…
|
Proposed
revenue |
Final
determination |
Final
as a percentage of proposal |
|
$4,535m |
$3,838m |
85% |
Basis of the appeal
On 19th
November 2015 SA Power Networks applied to the Tribunal for a review of the
AER’s determination. The basis of the appeal is that the AER made material
errors in determining several key components of the determination.
Legal framework for the appeals
The
legal framework for the appeals is set out in s71B of the National Electricity Law.
The Tribunal’s determination
The
Tribunal’s determination in regard to each aspect of the appeal is as follows…
|
Aspect
of appeal |
Tribunal’s
determination |
|
The
value of imputation credits. |
That
the AER did not inter alia err in
forming the judgment it did regarding the weight to give to different forms
of evidence. |
|
Return
on debt transition. |
That
the AER has committed no error of fact or has been unreasonable in reaching
its conclusions inter alia in
regard to the approach to calculating the efficient cost of funding. |
|
Forecasts
of inflation. |
That
the post-tax revenue model (PTRM) is binding upon SA Power Networks, and that
AER cannot consider inflation outside of that approach as proposed by SA
Power Networks. |
|
Forecasts
of the expenditure required for bushfire safety. |
That
the AER did not make the errors of fact pleaded by SA Power Networks, nor did
it exercise its discretion incorrectly or make a decision that was
unreasonable. |
|
Forecasts
of labor cost escalations. |
That
the AER did not make any material errors of fact, nor did it exercise its
discretion incorrectly or make a decision that was unreasonable. |
The practical effect of the Tribunal’s determination
The
practical effect of the Tribunal’s determination is that the AER’s Final
Decision remains.
Privatisation & restructuring
Aus – the possible sale of Western Power
Introduction
Pipes & Wires #150 noted the possible sale of Western Power by its owners, the Government of Western Australian. This
article picks up that story again to see which direction the politics might go.
The politics of privatisation in the West
Not
surprisingly, privatisation is unpopular in states dominated by the Labor
party. However it seems that the possible privatisation of Western Power might
be driven more by the State’s ailing finances than by strict ideology.
Latest political announcements
Announcements
over the last few weeks include…
· A reassurance from Premier Colin Barnett that Western Power
would continue to operate as a regulated monopoly (presumably to assuage the
popular misconception that a private owner would be free to increase prices).
· That a sale would free up funds for social infrastructure
for a growing population.
· An opposing view from Labor leader Mark McGowan that
privatisation will bring a reduction in service. His statement emphasised the
loss of the annual income from Western Power (whilst overlooking the sale
proceeds) and overlooked the simple fact that Western Power’s prices will
continue to be regulated (analysis obtained by ABC revealed that there is no
consistent link between privatisation and either higher or lower prices).
· The starting of a petition by the Labor party.
Possible next steps
It
seems that the possible sale could end up being a key issue for the 2017 state
elections. As this is a significant issue for the Australian electricity
sector, Pipes & Wires will pick up this story again as the election comes
closer.
US – the muni’ising Boulder saga continues
Introduction
Pipes
& Wires has been following the efforts of the City Of Boulder, Colorado to
purchase Xcel Energy’s distribution assets and run those assets as a Muni (Pipes & Wires #126, #128, #137, #141 and #154). This article examines recent progress and some recent
claims of the likely benefits,
Recent progress on muni’ising Xcel’s Boulder distribution
system
The
District Court ruled the following…
· That the breakup of Xcel’s distribution system could affect
supply reliability and prices to customers outside of the City’s area.
· This violated the principles of monopoly operation.
· That the Colorado Public Utilities Commission (PUC) should
therefore have input to this matter. The PUC went on to rule inter alia that the City could not
acquire Xcel distribution assets that supplied customers outside of the City,
nor could it force Xcel to share its assets.
Accordingly
the City filed a Supplemental Application that omitted acquiring the 9 major substations and the
115kV ring around the City. The City went to acknowledge that the supplemental
filing is a dramatic change.
Recent claims of benefits
The
City of Boulder has released new analysis based on two measures…
· The customers savings based on the City setting tariffs
lower than Xcel presumably would. The City’s analysis indicates that this could
be as much as $100m over 10 years.
· Cash flow to the City. This is expected to be positive from
Year 1, and is estimated to amount to $200m after 10 years.
Likely next steps
Pipes
& Wires will comment further once the PUC releases its decision on the
Supplemental Application.
Solar,
batteries & nett metering
US –
another electric company proposes solar tariffs
Introduction
Pipes & Wires has been closely watching
the increasing number of electric companies that are introducing solar tariffs
… tariffs aimed at recovering the true economic cost of supplying a customer
that takes a significantly reduced kWh volume and indeed expect to be paid for
the kWh they export into the grid. This article examines Rocky Mountain
Power’s proposed solar
tariffs that could make Utah the next solar tariff battle ground.
The key
issue
The key issue is that most electric companies
recover very high fixed costs through a mix of fixed and variable tariffs ….
historically those tariffs assumed an annual kWh volume (8,000kWh per year in
New Zealand). The introduction of roof top solar panels behind the meter means
that inter alia solar customers are
no longer consuming that assumed volume, and indeed are often exporting kWh
into the grid. This has the following implications…
· The
electric company will be under-recovering the fixed costs. In the specific
context of this article, Rocky Mountain Power estimates that this under-recovery
will be about $6.5m per year.
· The
electric company will be paying for the kWh exported by the customers. Due to
legacy feed-in tariffs, this may be at much higher prices than what the
electric company could sell that same kWh to the customer for.
· Export of
solar power may increase the distribution system peaks but not at the times
when it usefully offsets demand.
A bit about Rocky Mountain Power
Along with
Pacific Power, Rocky Mountain Power is a subsidiary of Pacificorp. Rocky
Mountain has its headquarters in Salt Lake City, and supplies 1,071,600
electric customers across parts of Utah, Wyoming and Idaho.
Rocky
Mountain Power’s proposed tariffs
Rocky Mountain is proposing the following
tariffs….
· A $60
application fee for a nett metering installation, to cover the cost of
processing the application.
· A $15 per
month fixed charge.
· A demand
charge of $9.02 per kW for peak period demand.
· An energy
charge of $0.0381 per kWh for energy consumed from the grid
Rocky Mountain also notes that roof top solar
customers effectively save $0.105 for every kWh they generate, whilst Rocky Mountain
could purchase that same energy from grid-scale renewables for about 1/3 of
that cost.
Pipes & Wires will pick up this story as
Rocky Mountain implements its tariffs.
General stuff
Guide to NZ electricity laws
I’ve
compiled a “wall chart” setting out the relationship between various past and
present electricity Acts, Regulations, Codes etc in sort of a chronological
progression. To request your free copy, pick here. It looks really cool printed in color as an A2 or A1 size.
A bit of light-hearted humor
What
if price control had been around in the 1920’s and 1930’s ? A collection of
photo’s with humorous captions looks at some of the salient features of price
control. Pick here to download.
Wanted – old electricity history books
If
anyone has an old copy of the following books (or any similar books) they no
longer want I’d be happy to give them a good home…
· Economic Operation Of Power Systems (Kirchmayer).
· Distribution Of Electricity (WT Henley, the cable
manufacturer)
· Northwards March The Pylons.
· Two Per Mile.
· Live Lines (the old ESAA journal).
· The Engineering History Of Electric Supply In New Zealand.
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Disclaimer
These articles are
of a general nature and are not intended as specific legal, consulting or
investment advice, and are correct at the time of writing. In particular Pipes
& Wires may make forward looking or speculative statements, projections or
estimates of such matters as industry structural changes, merger outcomes or
regulatory determinations. These articles also summarise lengthy documents, and it is important that readers refer to those
documents in forming opinions or taking action.
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