From the
editor’s desk…
Welcome
to Pipes & Wires #135 … we start this month with an extensive review of
regulatory and policy decisions in New Zealand. We then look at changing energy
policies in Canada and the United States, and then look at a competition law
approval and a policy shift in Australia. This issue closes with a review of
possible large gas finds in South Africa. Please also reply to the pop quiz
below.
Pop quiz #135
Which
asset investment decision would you have more confidence in (pick one of the
links below) ??
· A decision that was high in engineering judgment
but with possibly inaccurate data.
· A decision with weak engineering judgment but with
totally accurate data.
Recent client projects
Here’s
a sample of work done for clients over the last few years that demonstrate the
breadth of skills, insight and experience that is available from Utility
Consultants....
· Assessing a large EDB’s asset
management practices against ISO 55000:2014.
· Advising an investor on the investment
characteristics and regulatory constraints of small hydro development and grid
connection.
· Reviewing the engineering aspects of an
EDB’s lines pricing methodology.
· Advising a major global consultancy on
specific features of emerging electricity transmission and distribution
regulatory regimes, including period length, potential for re-opening
determinations, caps & collars, total expenditure levels and incentive
mechanisms.
· Examining the economic efficiencies of
an EDB’s pricing methodologies.
· Advised on the wider philosophical and
potential tax issues of the way consumer discounts are paid by EDB’s.
· Prepared an independent engineer’s
report to justify proposed alternative asset lives.
· Advised an electricity business on the
regulatory implications of bringing externally contracted field services back
in-house.
· Identified economic and regulatory
arguments to support inclusion of transmission interconnection charge risk into
network tariffs.
· Advised lines businesses on a
regulator’s proposed treatment of CapEx and OpEx.
· Advised an international investor on
gas distribution policy and regulatory trends.
· Identified national energy policy
implications for lines businesses.
· Assisted a lines business to identify
the burden of proof implied by regulatory determinations.
· Suggested amendments to a gas
transmission AMP to strengthen the economic arguments.
· Identified electricity network
investment characteristics as part of an acquisition study.
· Developed an AM framework for a gas
distribution business to link AM to regulatory requirements.
· Identified OpEx – CapEx tradeoffs for an electricity lines
business.
· Performed various substation growth and
reinforcement assessments.
· Performed network physical and business
risk studies.
· Compiled disaster recovery and business
continuity plans.
Pick
here to download a profile of recent
projects, or here to contact Phil.
Matters for attention in NZ
Readers’
attention is drawn to the following matters…
· Revised standard NZS7901:2014 for
Safety Management Systems.
· Likely increased obligations for worker
safety.
New Zealand
NZ – resetting the electricity Default Price
Path
Introduction
The Commerce
Commission recently released its Draft Determination of the Default Price Path (DPP) that will apply to the 16
non-exempt electricity distribution businesses (EDB’s) for the 5 period
commencing on 1st April 2015 (and to Orion when its Customised Price
Path expires). This article examines the key features of the Draft
Determination.
Legal framework
The
legal framework for the DPP is as follows…
· Part 4 of the Commerce Act 1986 provides the broad framework for
regulated goods or services.
· Subpart 6 of Part 4 specifically addresses the
Default and Customised Price-Quality Regulation, with ss 52O and 52P setting out the specific features that
a DPP must include.
· s54D(1) defines the criteria that an EDB must
meet to be exempt from the DPP.
The Commission’s previous work
The
Commission’s previous work has included extensive deliberation on information
forecasts, on quality and performance incentives, treatment of risk, and how
claw back should be applied. Pipes & Wires #127, #129 and #132 discuss these issues.
Key features of the Draft Determination
Key
features of the Draft Determination include…
· The following starting prices (MAR) and
annual rates of change shall apply…
Company |
Maximum
Allowable Revenue ($m) |
Annual
rate of change |
Alpine
Energy |
$30.913 |
10.0% |
Aurora
Energy |
$56.590 |
0.0% |
Centralines |
$10.084 |
6.0% |
Eastland
Networks |
$22.681 |
3.5% |
Electricity
Ashburton |
$32.846 |
2.0% |
Electricity
Invercargill |
$14.556 |
0.5% |
Horizon
Energy |
$22.047 |
0.5% |
Nelson
Electricity |
$6.093 |
0.0% |
Network
Tasman |
$28.729 |
0.0% |
OtagoNet |
$23.742 |
0.0% |
Powerco |
$256.527 |
0.0% |
The
Lines Company |
$35.816 |
0.0% |
Top
Energy |
$35.020 |
7.0% |
Vector |
$396.831 |
0.0% |
Wellington
Electricity |
$100.482 |
0.0% |
· The following SAIDI targets, collars
and caps shall apply (revenue at risk from the collar & cap approach is 1%)…
Company |
SAIDI
collar |
SAIDI
target |
SAIDI
cap |
Alpine
Energy |
78.77 |
147.60 |
216.44 |
Aurora
Energy |
61.41 |
86.80 |
112.20 |
Centralines |
100.94 |
137.19 |
173.44 |
Eastland
Networks |
206.03 |
246.60 |
287.16 |
Electricity
Ashburton |
109.27 |
139.55 |
169.83 |
Electricity
Invercargill |
17.51 |
29.16 |
40.80 |
Horizon
Energy |
124.54 |
170.64 |
216.73 |
Nelson
Electricity |
5.55 |
15.13 |
24.7 |
Network
Tasman |
102.54 |
126.03 |
149.52 |
OtagoNet |
171.51 |
233.61 |
295.70 |
Powerco |
166.19 |
222.32 |
278.44 |
The
Lines Company |
201.33 |
238.81 |
276.30 |
Top
Energy |
364.24 |
445.99 |
527.75 |
Vector |
81.52 |
106.64 |
131.77 |
Wellington
Electricity |
24.92 |
37.12 |
49.31 |
Next steps
The
Commission will receive submissions on this Draft until 29th August
2014, and will release its Final Decision by 30th November 2014.
NZ – reviewing the WACC Input
Methodology
Introduction
The
Commerce Commission has been re-considering the use of the 75th percentile
of the WACC range for regulated infrastructure in response to comments made by
the High Court in a recent legal case. This article examines the details of
this matter that have emerged to date.
Legal framework for the Input
Methodologies
The
legal framework for Input Methodologies (IM’s) is set out in Subpart 3 of Part 4 of the Commerce Act 1986 and
has the stated purpose of “promoting certainty for supplies and consumers in
relation to the rules, requirements and processes applying to the regulations
or proposed regulations…”. Specific sections include…
· s52T(1)(a)(i) requires an IM to be compiled for to
address the cost of capital.
· s52U requires the IM’s to be determined no
later than 30th June 2010.
· s52Y requires the Commission to review each
IM no later than 7 years after its date of publication.
Surrounding issues
There
are several surrounding issues that must also be considered…
· The High Court’s remark about the
suitability of the 75th percentile appears to have prompted
inquiries from major infrastructure users.
· There is the need to provide certainty
for the resetting of the electricity distribution default price path (DPP)
prior to November 2014, and also to provide certainty for the Transpower
individual price path (IPP).
· The over-arching requirement for the
regulatory framework to encourage investment.
Events to date
S52X
of the Commerce Act 1986 requires a material change to an IM to be treated as
if it were a new IM, which invokes the procedural requirements set out in s52V.
Understandably, regulated infrastructure companies were concerned about the
possibility of a significant decrease in WACC, and took the opportunity to make
submissions to the Commission.
The
Commission has also sought advice from a range of experts (although the Commission has made it
clear that those reports do not represent the Commission’s official view).
The Commission’s Draft Decision
The
Commission’s Draft Decision was released in late July 2014 and comprises two
components…
· Energy companies should be subject to a
67th percentile WACC instead of the 75th percentile
currently used. The Commission recognises that it is appropriate to use a WACC
significantly above the mid-point because the cost of under-investment outweighs
the costs of over-investment.
· A range from the 33rd to the
67th percentile of the WACC distribution should be used for
Information Disclosure instead of the currently used 25th to 75th
percentile.
The
WACC percentile for airports will be addressed separately.
Next steps
The
Commission will receive submissions on its Draft Decision until Friday 29th
August 2014, and expects to release a Final Determination during November 2014.
NZ – improving distribution efficiency
Introduction
Those
overseeing the infrastructure sectors have a general concern about the sector’s
efficiency. This article examines the Electricity Authority’s (EA) recently
released Statement Of Intent for 1st July 2014 to
30th June 2018 to see what might be around the corner for the distribution
segment of the electricity supply chain.
Legal basis for the SOI
The
legal requirements for preparing a SOI are set out in the Crown Entities Act 2004 as follows…
· s139 requires a Crown Entity to prepare a
SOI covering at least the 3 following years.
· s141 defines what the SOI must include,
especially the outcomes that the entity is expected to achieve or contribute
to.
Overall direction of the EA’s work
Following
on from the statutory objectives in s15 of the Electricity Industry Act 2010, the overall direction of the EA’s
work is to address the following questions (Source – SOI 2014 – 2018)…
· Are prices reasonable ? Do prices
reflect the efficient costs of supplying customers ?
· Will the lights stay on ? Do market
arrangements ensure continuity of supply even in dry years and during
foreseeable short-term emergencies ?
· Do consumers have choices ? Do
consumers face any unnecessary barriers to switch to get the best deal for them
? Can large customers participate appropriately in the market ?
· Is innovation occurring ? Do suppliers
develop new services and pricing plans to deliver greater value to customers ?
The likely impacts on the distribution
segment of the electricity supply chain
Table
5 of the SOI sets out the EA’s strategies and impact measures, and at first
glance embodies a lot of high-level phrases like…
· more level playing field.
· reduced set up costs.
· reduced instances of inefficient
prices.
However
a more detailed read under the heading of “Providing efficient price signals”
reveals two areas of focus that are likely to impact on distribution…
· more efficient price signals for
residential and SME consumers.
· improved efficiency in transmission and
distribution networks.
More efficient price signals
The
EA has been undertaking a major work stream around the efficiency of distribution pricing methodologies, and in particular ensuring that
individual EDB’s pricing methodologies comply with a range of economic
efficiency principles. However the pursuit of economic efficiency must be
balanced against (i) a range of practical factors such as billing simplicity
and minimsing the number of distribution tariffs to a workable level, and (ii)
wider industry regulations and expectations such as the use of variable tariffs
to recover fixed costs, low-user tariffs, and the repackaging of distribution
charges by retailers.
Improving network efficiency
The
focus on productive efficiency lies principally with the Commerce Commission’s
price control role under Part 4 of the Commerce Act 1986, however the EA presumably does have a
role in contributing to allocative and dynamic efficiency which in practice
appears to mean encouraging allocation of resources to supply continuity and
restoration at about the current prices, and ensuring that EDB’s are
incentivised to smoothly transition into the future (of which a large part will
be leveraging the smart meter data to further refine investment levels and
pricing).
NZ – amending the electricity
distribution services Input Methodology
Introduction
The
Commerce Commission recently released a consultation paper on proposed
amendments to the Input Methodologies (IM) for electricity distribution services. This article examines what those
proposed amendments are.
Legal framework for the IM
The
legal framework for the IM’s is Subpart 3 of Part 4 of the Commerce Act 1986. This subpart inter alia sets out the purpose of the IM’s, what issues they must
address, and the process for establishing and amending IM’s.
Proposed changes
The
Commission proposes to amend the IM as follows…
· Adopt a mid-year timing assumption for
the definitions of notional deductible interest for tax treatment, rather than
the year-end payments assumed by the current model.
· Correct for the incorrectly allowed
double deduction of the term credit spread differential allowance for the
regulatory tax allowance.
· Correct the amortisation of initial
differences in asset values.
Interested
readers should read the consultation paper and the associated documents before
forming a view.
Next steps
At
the time of writing the Commission is consulting on the proposed amendments, and
received submissions until 5pm on Friday 18th July 2014. The Commission
expects to make its final decisions by 30th September 2014.
NZ – amending the electricity
Information Disclosure Requirements
Introduction
The
Commerce Commission recently published a Process Paper in regard to amending the Information Disclosure requirements for electricity distribution and gas
pipelines for the 2015 disclosures. This article examines those proposed
amendments.
Legal framework
The
legal framework for information disclosure includes the following aspects…
· Subpart 4 of Part 4 of the Commerce Act 1986 which defines the purpose of
information disclosure, and provides for a Determination made under s52P to define the types of information to
be disclosed.
· s54F which makes all electricity lines
services subject to information disclosure.
· s55C which similar makes all gas pipeline
services subject to information disclosure.
The Commission’s process
The Commission
has been operating an issues register for electric and gas companies to record
issues and concerns with the existing disclosure requirements, and expects to
prioritise these issues on the basis that high impact, low complexity issues
will receive high priority.
Next steps
The
Commission received submissions on the Process Paper until 5pm on 11th
July 2014, and expects to publish its Draft Decision by in September or October
2014 after which a 4 week consultation period will follow. A Final Decision is
expected in February 2015.
North America
Canada – examining Ontario’s energy
policy
Introduction
Last
month Ontario’s Liberal premier Kathleen Wynne was returned to office with a majority
that no longer relies on the support of the New Democrats. This article
examines what that could mean for Ontario’s energy policy against a backdrop of
a world in which strongly articulated energy policies are diluted by the
practical necessities of coalition politics.
The election results
The
election results were as follows…
Party |
Prior
to the election |
After
the election |
Liberal
Party |
48 seats (45%) |
58 seats (54%) |
New
Democrats |
21 seats (20%) |
21 seats (20%) |
Progressive
Conservative |
37 seats (35%) |
28 seats (26%) |
Vacant |
1 seat (1%) |
0 seats (0%) |
It
appears that the Liberals gain has come almost totally at the expense of the
Progressive Conservatives.
How the election might effect the
Liberals’ energy policies
Given
that the New Democrats have been scathing of the Liberals in the past and had a specific policy
position of reducing domestic electric bills, it is expected that the Liberal’s
increased majority will mean full steam ahead for most of their policies. These
include…
· Feed In Tariffs program, which will subsidise renewable
generation between 10kW and 500kW.
· Large Renewable Procurement Program, which is a competitive bidding
process for the Province to purchase renewable energy projects greater than
500kW.
· Conservation First framework, which will achieve a 7,000 GWh
reduction in energy consumption by 31st December 2020.
· Long-Term Energy Storage, which provides for 50 MW of grid
storage to be procured by the end of 2014.
Where might this lead
A
quick read of the official publications suggests that there will be a full-on
charge into renewables with no obvious concern for costs or security of supply.
It is therefore not clear why Ontario won’t end up with the same high prices
and declining supply reliability that Germany and the UK are now experiencing.
US – rooftop solar, nett metering, fixed
tariffs and subsidies
Introduction
Nett
metering has proved to be a dividing line in the battle for rooftop solar. This
article tries to get to the bottom of exactly why nett metering seems to be
such a sensitive issue.
The real issue
Firstly
we need to understand that nett metering measures … well … uh … the nett kWh
entering a customer’s connection. So if a customer generates their own
electricity, the nett electricity entering their connection declines so they prima facie pay less to the electric
company. A customer that generates lots of electricity may become a nett
exporter and in some cases may get paid by the electric company rather than
paying them.
However
the electric company’s costs to own and operate its distribution network are
almost totally fixed regardless of the kWh consumed by individual customers,
but that of itself is not an issue. The real issue becomes when the electric
company must recover those fixed costs on a variable (kWh) basis, because a
customer who reduces their nett kWh pays less towards the fixed network costs.
So where do subsidies come into this ??
In
order to recover the fixed costs of owning and operating the distribution
network, those costs are divided by an estimated annual kWh throughput to
derive a c/kWh charge. So … plain and simple … if the kWh throughput declines,
the c/kWh charge must increase.
Those
customers with generators are likely to try to generate more kWh when they see
how much money they can make and how much cost they can avoid, further reducing
the kWh throughput. Those without generators are stuck with paying a higher
c/kWh charge whilst consuming pretty much the same kWh ie. a subsidy from
non-generators to generators occurs.
Until
recently many policy makers didn’t seem to have a problem with these subsidies
… given that it was mainly renewable generators such as rooftop solar that was
receiving them. However attention has recently turned to the classes of
electric consumers who are paying these subsidies, and not surprisingly large
numbers of them are the poor. This appears to have struck a chord in the hearts
of some officials who are now searching for a way forward…
Recent happenings
A
few promising happenings in a couple of states are worth examining…
· Massachusetts – provision for electric
companies to charge a minimum monthly tariff for those customers with rooftop
solar (to contribute to the fixed costs of the distribution network), albeit
with the concession that those customers potential earnings will no longer be
capped.
· Missouri – as part of the 15%
renewables target by 2021 investor-owned electric companies were required to
pay rooftop solar customers $2 per Watt of installed capacity. This was phased
out in 2013 with the Public Service Commission’s agreement, but progress has
been slow due to a law suit to block the phase out.
· Maine – Central Maine Power has
proposed adding $3 per month to the average customer’s bill to contribute to
the cost of maintaining the distribution network.
The
fact that electric companies have had to fight tooth and nail against advocacy
groups, and in some case policy makers, to obtain the smallest of gains whilst
also having to make concessions suggests that the core issue of free-riding is still
not well understood.
Possible ways forward
So …
a couple of possible ways forward include…
· Meter all premises on a gross basis
rather than a nett basis. Whilst this won’t eliminate the economic inefficiency
of recovering a fixed cost with variable charges it will minimise the
subsidies.
· Establish a fixed monthly charge based
on fuse capacity for connecting to the distribution network, regardless of the
direction and amount of kWh throughput. It seems that Massachusetts and Maine
are heading this way.
The
fixed monthly charge will be a big leap across the comfort gap for those who
insist that customers should be “charged for what they use”, but it also
provides a great opportunity to educate those people that what they are
actually using is network capacity and availability. Throw in the possibility
of the monthly charge being less because the volume-risk premium could be
eliminated and it might get some traction…
Australia
NSW – AGL cleared to acquire Macquarie
Generation
Introduction
Recent
issues of Pipes & Wires have followed the unfolding saga of AGL’s proposed
acquisition of Macquarie Generation (MacGen). This article examines the Australian Competition Tribunal’s (ACT) decision to
allow the acquisition.
Sequence of events
The
following sequence of events has occurred…
· AGL offers to buy MacGen from the NSW
Government for $1.7b (the only acceptable offer).
· The ACCC refuses to allow the acquisition on the basis that it would be likely
to lessen competition in the NSW retail market.
· The ACT overturns the ACCC ruling,
allowing the acquisition to proceed.
AGL’s proposed acquisition of MacGen
AGL
Energy proposed to pay the NSW government $1.7b for assets that include …
· Bayswater, a 4 x 660 MW hard-coal fired station.
· Liddell, a 4 x 500 MW hard-coal fired station.
· The 50 MW Hunter Valley gas turbines.
· The Liddell solar farm.
The ACCC’s refusal to allow the
acquisition
On
the 4th March 2014 the ACCC announced that it opposed the proposed
acquisition on the basis that it would be likely to substantially lessen
competition in the NSW retail electricity supply market. The proposed
acquisition would result in the state’s largest generators being owned by 1 of
the 3 largest retailers, which the ACCC claims would both raise barriers to
entry and expansion for other retailers and reduce hedge liquidity.
The ACT’s overturning the ACCC refusal
On
the 25th June 2014 the ACT overturned the ACCC’s refusal on the
following grounds…
· That “substantial public benefits”
would arise from the acquisition.
· That the public detriments identified
by the ACCC were “unlikely to arise”.
· That there would still be active
competition in the NSW retail electricity market, including access to an
adequate hedge market for small retailers.
It
is noted that the ACCC does have some limited grounds for appealing the ACT’s
decision, but otherwise the acquisition is expected to be completed by June
2015.
Aus – repealing the carbon tax
Introduction
Pipes & Wires #132 examined the Abbot Government’s plans
to scrap Australia’s Carbon Tax which was blocked in the Senate by 33 votes to
29. This article examines the vote to scrap the Carbon Tax by the newly
configured Senate.
Abbot’s legislative package
Abbott’s
legislative package includes the Clean Energy Legislation (Carbon Tax Repeal) Bill
2013 and comprises 7 Bills to inter alia repeal the 6 Acts that established the carbon pricing
mechanism.
Recent happenings
The
following events have recently occurred…
·
On
23rd June the Abbott Government reintroduced the Repeal Bills.
·
During
the week of the 7th July, the Senate (the Upper House) rejected the
Repeal Bills after the Palmer United Party withdrew its support.
·
On
14th July the House Of Representatives (the Lower House) passed the
Repeal Bill after making some amendments demanded by Palmer to ensure that
savings would be passed to consumers. This passing of the Bill allows it to
pass to the Senate for another vote.
·
On
17th July the Senate voted 39 to 32 to pass the Repeal Bills. The
Abbot Government was supported by 7 new cross-bench Senators
Political responses
Not
surprisingly, the political responses have been hugely divergent with the
political right claiming a huge victory for common sense whilst the political
left are understandably disgusted.
Policy responses
The
major policy responses include immediate removal of the $25.40 per ton tax on
CO2 from Australia’s 350 largest emitters. This is expected to
reduce tax revenues by $7b over the next 4 years.
Africa
South Africa – a bright future for shale
gas ??
Introduction
Most
of us have a general idea that most of South Africa’s electricity generation is
from coal. This article examines recent news that South Africa has heaps of
shale gas, and considers what that might mean in terms of cost, supply and
shifts in the mix of generation plant.
South Africa’s generation mix
About
90% of South Africa’s annually generated 240,000 GWh is from coal-fired
stations, with the remaining 10% equally split between nuclear and hydro. South
Africa does also have about 2,450 MW of gas turbine stations within its
national generation capacity of about 44,000 MW, but it appears that their load
factor is pretty low.
Likely shale gas reserves
It
appears that that the Karoo Basin (which actually covers about 65% of
South Africa’s land area) alone has about 485 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of
technically recoverable gas. That is about 3,200x New Zealand’s annual gas
consumption.
Changing the dynamics of generation
So
how might heaps of cheap gas change the dynamics of electricity generation ?? A
couple of options spring to mind…
· A reasonable starting point could be
that the existing gas turbines could be run as base-load stations, which would
generate about 21,000 GWh or about 9% of annual generation.
· Construction of combined-cycle gas
turbine generation by either Eskom or by IPP’s (or both).
· Conversion of some of the existing
coal-fired six-packs to gas-firing. This would obviously require a lot of
engineering work to install gas firing, and probably introduce some inefficiencies
around the boiler reheat stages.
General stuff
Guide to NZ electricity laws
I’ve
compiled a “wall chart” setting out the relationship between various past and
present electricity Acts, Regulations, Codes etc in sort of a chronological
progression. To request your free copy, pick here. It looks really cool printed in color
as an A2 or A1 size.
Recently released book “Small
Hydroelectric Engineering Practice”
Well-known
hydroelectric engineer Bryan Leyland has recently published a book entitled
“Small Hydroelectric Engineering Practice”. This is a comprehensive reference
book covering all aspects of identifying, building and operating hydroelectric
schemes between 500kW and 50MW. Pick here for more details.
A bit of light-hearted humor
What
if price control had been around in the 1920’s and 1930’s ? A collection of
photo’s with humorous captions looks at some of the salient features of price
control. Pick here to download.
Conferences & training courses
The following
conferences and training courses are planned...
· NZ Coatings & Corrosion
Conference & Exhibition – Auckland, 29th – 30th
July 2014.
· Fundamentals of the NZ
Electricity Industry – Wellington, 23rd – 24th
September 2014.
· Fundamentals of the NZ
Electricity Industry – Auckland, 7th – 8th
October 2014.
· Africa Oil & Gas Expo –
Johannesburg, 9th – 10th October, 2014.
Utility
Consultants takes no responsibility for the content of individual courses or
conferences, nor for any administrative or travel arrangements.
Wanted – old electricity history books
If
anyone has an old copy of the following books (or any similar books) they no
longer want I’d be happy to give them a good home…
· Wonders Of World
Engineering (published 1937) – in particular editions 1 to 27.
· Distribution Of Electricity (WT Henley,
the cable manufacturer)
· Northwards March The Pylons.
· Two Per Mile.
· Live Lines (the old ESAA journal).
· The Engineering History Of Electric
Supply In New Zealand.
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Disclaimer
These articles
are of a general nature and are not intended as specific legal, consulting or
investment advice, and are correct at the time of writing. In particular Pipes
& Wires may make forward looking or speculative statements, projections or
estimates of such matters as industry structural changes, merger outcomes or
regulatory determinations. These articles also summarise lengthy documents, and it is important that
readers refer to those documents in forming opinions or taking action.
Utility
Consultants Ltd accepts no liability for action or inaction based on the
contents of Pipes & Wires including any loss, damage or exposure to
offensive material from linking to any websites contained herein, or from any
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